Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) suffered a severe blow on October 27 when, alongside its smaller coalition partner, Komeito, it lost its majority in a snap general election. The ruling coalition took 215 seats, fewer than the 233 required, with the centre-left opposition Constitutional Democratic party making big gains.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called the election after winning his bid for party leadership in September. He had hoped to cement his position and draw a line under the tenure of his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, who had stepped down earlier that month amid a string of corruption scandals and public discontent over the rising cost of living.

Ishiba has admitted that voters, who turned out in their third-lowest numbers in Japan’s post-war era, have dealt the LDP a “severe judgment”. But he has vowed to continue ruling the country.

For its part, the opposition is not unified and therefore not in a position to offer a viable alternative. However, the ability of Ishiba’s government to push through the changes it needs to win back voter support will be severely restricted if the LDP fails to enter into coalition or garner key allies on particular issues.

The LDP sits at the heart of the so-called “1955 system”, which has seen the party retain almost uninterrupted government control since the end of the second world war. But recent events have rocked Japanese politics.

At the end of 2023, the public became aware of funding scandals involving dozens of LDP politicians. They were found to have diverted over ¥600 million (£3 million) of campaign donations into slush funds without recording the transactions as they were legally required to do.

These scandals involved cabinet ministers and close allies of Kishida, who had already faced criticism over their links with the controversial Unification church. The church, whose members are commonly known as the Moonies, has been called a “dangerous cult” by its critics and is accused of exploiting its members financially.

Japan’s former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, was shot dead in July 2022 by a man who said he held the church responsible for bankrupting his family. Abe was not a member of the church, but his grandfather was a key figure in its establishment in Japan in the 1950s. Kishida ordered party members to end their ties with the church in the aftermath of Abe’s assassination.

These scandals have taken place against the backdrop of rising prices, stagnant wages and a generally sluggish economy. Consumer price inflation accelerated to 3% in August, a ten-month high. The dreary outlook contributed to voter disillusionment.

According to a survey by Tokyo-based news agency Kyodo News, the approval rating of Ishiba’s cabinet fell to 32.1% after the vote, from its pre-election rating of 50.7%.

The electorate has expressed its doubt that a new government could end the distrust caused by the scandals. Rebuilding this trust will only become harder as the yen continues to fall, and Japan’s economic uncertainty, ageing population, and disaffection among young voters persist.

Regional insecurity

The electoral body blow could also weaken Japanese foreign policy, with China emerging as the main beneficiary. To its democratic allies, a stable Japan is crucial for securing geopolitical stability in a region that also includes a dominant China, a belligerent Russia and a nuclear-armed North Korea.

The LDP has traditionally always had a hawkish foreign policy stance. And in recent decades it has moved towards a desire to revise Japan’s “pacifist” constitution in favour of enabling the military to take a more flexible approach to security threats.

Kishida was lauded abroad for his foreign policy, having proposed increases in the defence budget and more cooperation with the US in the Indo-Pacific region. And Ishiba has previously advocated for an “Asian Nato” to counter China. He has even visited Taiwan’s capital city, Taipei – much to Beijing’s disapproval.

At the same time, Komeito’s more conservative position on foreign policy has supported an approach towards building diplomatic bridges with China. But should the LDP enter into coalition with the right-wing Japan Innovation party, which is a possibility given it won 38 seats in the recent election, a more assertive stance towards China may arise.

Led by politician Nobuyuki Baba, the party supports the revision of Japan’s constitution and an increase in defence spending as a means of countering China’s regional influence.

That said, a prolonged period of incapacitated politics within Japan presents a good opportunity for China to escalate its incursions into Japanese airspace and military manoeuvres around Taiwan. Japan’s leadership now needs to get its house in order quickly if the balance of security in the Indo-Pacific is to be maintained.