We spoke to Yale University historian Timothy Snyder who has written extensively about the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany and whose new book “On Freedom” explores the fragility of democracy.

Matt Frei: How much of a mess is the Democratic Party in, arguably knowing that Joe Biden was in a frail state and of advanced age for many months and years now, they’ve left it so late?

Timothy Snyder: Honestly, I have to say, maybe contrary to the general mood, I don’t think that’s such a big deal. We are four months away from an election. The United Kingdom just ran a full election in, what was it, six weeks? The French take three. Our election campaigns take two years. That’s a long time. Things can happen along the way during those two years where you might want to say, ‘it’s time to shake things up a little bit’. So, on the contrary, I would rather be the Democrats and still have options than be the Republicans and be locked into the ticket that they’ve got right now.

Matt Frei: Of course, until 1968 the nominee in the Democratic Party, until that rather messy convention in Chicago, was decided at the convention.

Timothy Snyder: People remember 1968 as your question indicates, and I don’t think we’re very likely to see a messy convention. I think if there is some kind of change, it will be either that Biden makes it clear that he prefers Kamala Harris, or there’s some kind of set of many convention processes. Or, the most radical possibility, he actually resigns the office of presidency, hands it over to Kamala Harris, lets her run as an incumbent, and then serves as her surrogate on the campaign trail. But I don’t think it’s going to come down to nobody having any ideas what to do at the convention.

Matt Frei: Let’s move on to the consequences. If Donald Trump, the man speaking here tonight, wins this election, what’s at stake for America? What’s at stake for Ukraine, and for Europe?

Timothy Snyder: I can’t help but point out that that’s kind of a sweet spot for the Democrats. There really aren’t that many Americans who are keen on never voting again. And a Trump Vance ticket is the sharpest version of that that you can possibly have. Trump has said that he will contest the outcome no matter what it is. Vance has been the most radical in supporting that. Their platform is essentially one of dismantling the American state into chaos, which is not something that people really want. So the consequences would be if they win, in the best case, America disappears from foreign affairs. In the worst case, America very quickly shifts over to a side which is, broadly speaking, anti-European and certainly anti-Ukrainian.

Matt Frei: Here, they would say that this is democracy at work. They have democratically chosen Donald J. Trump to take over. That even though the Supreme Court has handed him these new powers, he will serve as a democratically elected second term president. And that’s it.

Timothy Snyder: I would be very surprised if they were to say something else, but we’re in a very unusual situation where they’ve nominated the convicted felon who organises stochastic terror against his own party, so the Republicans cease to run for office because they’re afraid for their own lives and the lives of their families. The fact that they’ve chosen him as their nominee, I think more shows how their party has changed than reflects anything like democracy. We will see what happens when there’s a vote. But I’ve got to say, the fact that people in Milwaukee are hyper convinced and run a four day exercise that looks much more like a religious rally than a convention, doesn’t suggest to me that they necessarily have a majority of votes.

Matt Frei: But they’ve also planned for the future, haven’t they, with the appointment of JD Vance as the vice presidential candidate. He’s a true believer in America first and arguably America alone, and he’s only 39 years old.

Timothy Snyder: I’d like to politely say that it’s impossible to say that JD Vance is a true believer in anything. His views have changed radically over the years from essentially centre-left to now, a hard right. I don’t think it’s possible to say that he’s serious about these views. The way that he enunciates them is almost like he’s telling a joke. I think he’s realised that if he rolls all the hard right, he can attract a certain amount of attention. He’s done so very effectively, very intelligently. He’s no doubt extremely talented, but I don’t think he believes in anything. The idea that this guy who is a venture capitalist, a very wealthy person, somehow believes in the plight of the white working class is absurd. So I think what we’re talking about instead is two technically very talented politicians who got themselves locked into a program, the basis of which is that America now is in a doomsday state. But it’s not really.