We spoke to the pollster Frank Luntz, and started by asking him whether Trump’s choice for vice president was a good pick.

Frank Luntz: There are only three states that really matter right now. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, working class voters, people who live paycheque to paycheque. JD Vance knows more about those people than anybody else.

Matt Frei: And yet the Democrats, I’m told, were hoping it would be JD Vance. Because if it’s him, and it is him, they’ve got a very clear attack line.

Frank Luntz: Let me be clear. Everything the Democrats are trying to do over the last six months has failed. Every strategy that they’ve put forward has actually made Donald Trump stronger, not weaker. If that’s what the Democrats want, then I’m sure that this is a good choice because they are running truly the worst campaign, the worst messaging of anything that I’ve seen in decades.

Matt Frei: What about the fact that JD Vance has said not only was 6 January okay, if he had been in charge as vice president, he would have actually made it happen. He would have overturned that result.

Frank Luntz: That’s a problem. That’s a real problem.

Matt Frei: But does it count against him with swing voters?

Frank Luntz: In the end, I hate to acknowledge this, but the vice presidential candidate doesn’t really matter as long as you reach that certain threshold. You’re going to be fine.

Matt Frei: Frank, there’s been a lot of talk here about civil war, especially after the assassination attempt on Saturday. Is that really a possibility?

Frank Luntz: It’s not. These are not people who pick up guns and try to kill each other. This is not a country that divides that way. We have our own problems. The hostility, the negativity that people are actually losing faith and confidence in democracy and finally saying ‘a plague on both your houses’. So civil war? No. Further division, further polarisation and toxicity? Absolutely, it could happen over the next…

Matt Frei: What about Trump as an autocratic president, backsliding on democracy?

Frank Luntz: Let’s see what he does going forward. We know what he said going backward, and it’s problematic. Let’s see how he communicates going forward. Because he seems, and this first day of the convention showed it, he seems like there might be a new Donald Trump because of what happened on Saturday.

Matt Frei: Frank, the Democrats are trying to rush the nomination of Joe Biden almost on the sly. I guess they’re afraid that there’ll be more challenges to it. What hope do they have, speaking as an outsider, what hope did they have to win the presidency, to hold on to it?

Frank Luntz: They still have hope because in the end, we don’t know what Donald Trump’s going to do. He’s the ultimate wildcard. Make no mistake, he’s in the driver’s seat. In fact, if the election were held today, Donald Trump would win by a significant margin. But we don’t know what he’s going to say on Thursday. There’s a reason for your viewers to tune in. In the end, it is Trump’s election to win because it seems like it’s been Joe Biden’s election to lose.

Matt Frei: And is Trump, as he often has been, still his own worst enemy?

Frank Luntz: To a fair degree, yes, but one does not know what this brush with death, this losing one’s life by an inch. That has an impact on people. Let’s see what an impact it has on Trump.

Matt Frei: The people last night on the floor when Trump appeared. But. But dancing as if this was a kind of music festival. Is that misplaced, that kind of exuberance?

Frank Luntz: That’s never happened before. I’m standing in the centre about one section above them, I’ve never seen this happen. Republicans don’t dance, and there’s a reason for that. But there’s celebrations, and on the floor, we saw people that we’ve never seen before. On the stage, African-American speaking out in favour of Republicans, union leaders speaking out in favour of Republicans.

Matt Frei: What’s that all about, why is that so new?

Frank Luntz: We are going through a transformation of American politics, and the fact is that transformation was in full view for Americans nationwide. I’ve never seen anything like this in 35 years of politics. Whether it holds through November, I can’t tell you. But what I saw last night, I have never seen in a convention, and I’ve been going to them since 1988.

Matt Frei: Briefly and finally, is that a political party down there or a cult?

Frank Luntz: It really loves its candidate, and I don’t want to dismiss the intensity, the commitment to their candidate and contrast that with the disappointments and the loss of faith in Joe Biden. That’s what’s significant. In the end, Donald Trump will not win a single vote because of the assassination attempt. But every Trump supporter will become a Trump voter in November, and you cannot say that about Biden supporters right now.

Matt Frei: Is Biden’s goose cooked?

Frank Luntz: It’s being basted right now. I love the British questions.