We spoke to Democrat strategist Julie Roginsky and began by asking if the assassination attempt on Donald Trump creates more trouble for the Democratic Party because of the confidence it has given to Republicans.

Julie Roginsky: I don’t think we’re in that much trouble. I’ve done enough campaigns over the last 30 years to know that four months before an election is no time to get complacent for anybody on either side of the aisle. I was around in 2016 when everybody thought Hillary Clinton had it in the tank and it was going to be a done deal, and ultimately that didn’t happen. I’m not so sure that Republicans should be resting on their laurels quite yet. Look, what happened to the former president was tragic. Certainly nobody condones it. But there’s a lot of campaigning left to do between now and November.

Matt Frei: But the thing is that this party is fundamentally united behind Donald Trump. Your party is not united behind Joe Biden.

Julie Roginsky: Our party is united in beating Donald Trump, and I think a lot of Democrats have said, including me, that they will vote for Joe Biden or for Kamala Harris. They will vote for a dead ficus plant, it doesn’t matter who it is, as long as it’s not Donald Trump. So I’m not concerned that Democrats are not going to be coming out…

Matt Frei: But, Julie, I wonder if the shooting on Saturday has made it more likely that Joe Biden will stay at the top of the ticket because he can say ‘I’m the wise old man. I’m the veteran in politics. I know what this sort of personal pain feels like, and I’m in a better position to try and heal the nation. And therefore, I deserve to still run at the top of this ticket’. Do you think that’s an argument going through his mind and the mind of Democrats?

Julie Roginsky: It may be going through his mind. I don’t think the Democratic Party is necessarily looking for somebody who’s going to heal the nation. I think the Democratic Party is looking for somebody who’s going to defeat Donald Trump and then heal the nation. The nation cannot ever be healed while somebody as divisive and incendiary as Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket and certainly as somebody who could potentially be president. Look at what’s happening not just here in this country, but around the world. Britain, as you know, obviously is our greatest ally, certainly our greatest Nato ally. You could say goodbye to the Nato alliance if Donald Trump gets elected. You could say goodbye to Ukraine having any sort of independence, not just Donetsk and eastern Ukraine, but there’s going to be a carte blanche basically for Putin to go as far west as Poland and potentially be into Nato countries in the Baltics if Donald Trump is elected. Taiwan will no longer be independent if Donald Trump is elected. There are all sorts of things that the world has to worry about, and you’re not going to be able to unify the country or have the Pax Americana that we’ve had since 1945 in this world while Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket and while Donald Trump is president of the United States.

Matt Frei: But the image of Trump defiant and resilient, pumping the air with his fist and shouting ‘Fight, fight, fight’ on Saturday, that is an image that is incredibly iconic and powerful. Set against the image of President Biden sounding very frail, frankly, and that frailty probably won’t disappear because he gets older every day. That is a fundamental problem, isn’t it, for you?

Julie Roginsky: It is a problem. Look, I’m not suggesting that Joe Biden is the strongest candidate the Democrats could put up. I’m suggesting that if Joe Biden ends up being the Democratic nominee, and right now it looks like he probably will be, that Democrats will rally around him. The threat to the Democratic Party and to every Democrat that I’ve spoken to is not who our nominee is, the threat is Donald Trump. At the end, I strongly believe that Democrats, regardless of how they feel about Joe Biden, by the way Biden has a tremendous amount of support and affection, even among people who don’t think that he’s the best candidate to go out there. It’s not that people dislike Joe Biden. They just don’t think it’s necessarily the person to draw the contrast with Trump. But if he’s who we have, then that’s who we’re going to support, Joe, to keep Donald Trump out of the White House.

We are also joined by Mick Mulvaney, a former White House chief of staff for Donald Trump.

Matt Frei: How do you think the events of Saturday, those terrible events, have changed this race?

Mick Mulvaney: I think that remains to be seen. I think for one thing, it will certainly increase the audience for this week. Why is that important? I think Donald Trump’s reaction to this is absolutely critical, to see whether or not he continues with the same rhetoric he used before Saturday or if he shifts gears. He’s not famous for shifting gears. I remember when we worked together, I would encourage him to sort of do things differently. He always correctly pointed out ‘Mick, you’ve never run for president. I have, I’ve won. I’m going to do what I’ve always done, because it’s worked for me’. And he’s right about that. But if he changes gears here, for maybe the first time in his political career, it could have tremendous impact on the outcome of the race. If he gives a conciliatory speech tonight, the speech that so many people think he cannot give, it could end the race tonight in his favour. There are a few undecideds left in the country, but many of them will be watching tonight, to see the first speech since the shooting. If Donald Trump impresses those undecided voters tonight with a message of unity and reconciliation, it could have a tremendous benefit to his campaign.

Matt Frei: But the crucial thing you’re telling me is that unless he sounds less defiant and changes that tone, he’s actually going to squander whatever advantages he gained on Saturday.

Mick Mulvaney: I don’t know about squandering. I think that the Democrats have a lot more explaining to do about their rhetoric going into Saturday night than the rest of them, but I think there’s an opportunity lost if he doesn’t reach out tonight. I have every reason to believe, by the way, that he will. The evidence is there. We’re hearing now rumours that the speakers are encouraged to not raise the rhetoric regarding Saturday, talking about the other people who will be speaking at the campaign. Nikki Haley, his last remaining primary challenger from the Republican primaries, who was not planning on coming to the convention, has been invited. So it looks like there is some evidence of some efforts at unity.

Matt Frei: So there are many people in this country, and outside this country, who are worried that the Supreme Court, in its recent rulings about immunity, has handed any president, but especially Donald Trump, just too many powers. Do you share that worry?

Mick Mulvaney: No, I don’t. I read the opinion. I thought the opinion was well reasoned. There’s immunity in some things, there’s not immunity in other things, and there’s a grey area in between. That’s the case in many areas of our law, especially when it comes to the constitution and to the separation of powers. I thought that the language that the particular liberal justice used in her dissent was irresponsible to say that we now have a king.