We’re joined by author and journalist Kim Ghattas, who is in Beirut.

Matt Frei: Just describe to us, if you can, the panic, the feeling in Beirut at 3:30 this afternoon when those pagers exploded, one after another.

Kim Ghattas: It was just one of chaos and absolute mayhem from 3:30 onwards for the last few hours. You can just imagine that these pagers were going off across the country, mostly in Beirut, but also in the south and in the Beqaa and actually also in Syria. These small explosions are going off in grocery shops, next to you on a moped, somebody driving next to you, just going off everywhere. And then the wailing of sirens throughout the afternoon. Hospitals overwhelmed everywhere. It was absolute chaos and mayhem and fear, because people didn’t instantly understand what was going on. It was one explosion and then another, and then it was generalised across the country. People were afraid if they were carrying a pager or a phone that it might happen to them, because as targeted as this was, and we assume it was an Israeli targeted operation against Hezbollah operatives, you could be standing next to somebody. It’s not perfect technology. Doctors use pagers in this country. So there have been most likely civilians injured as well. And now, of course, the Lebanese are wondering what next and what does this mean? Which I assume are the questions you want to ask me, too.

Matt Frei: Indeed, I was going to get onto that. But just to say the Israelis have so far said nothing, let’s see what they say, if they say anything at all, further down the line. But what is the kind of guesswork about how they, whoever did this, how they managed to do this?

Kim Ghattas: I’m not a technical expert. There are a lot of speculations. I’m not a pager expert. What we do know is that Hezbollah tried to ditch more high tech communication methods because they were being targeted for assassination. So Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, gave instructions to stop using your WhatsApp messaging app, your iPhones, disconnect your CCTVs, because the ‘enemy’, Israel he said, is going into your homes and finding out where you are, what you’re doing and at what time. So they opted for a more low tech technology – pagers. And as far as we understand, this was a new batch of pagers they’d gotten into the country just a few months ago. How exactly these were detonated? Were they rigged in advance? Can you make a pager explode by a high frequency interference and ignite the battery? I’m just not enough of an expert, and I think the investigation in Lebanon will take its course as well.

Matt Frei: And now to the most important question, Kim. Hezbollah and the Israeli government have been sort of exchanging artillery and insults and threats all year long since 7 October. Is this the trigger that could ignite the wider war?

Kim Ghattas: We keep waiting for that trigger and one day it will come. I don’t know whether this is the one. I’ve been saying for some months now that Iran and Hezbollah, partners, allies, don’t want a wider regional war. Israel has clearly understood that and it has been pushing the limits of what it can do. Targeting Iranian assets in Syria, targeting Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon, killing Hezbollah leader in August, killing Hamas leader in Tehran as well, Ismail Haniyeh, and finding out that the fire it receives in return is still contained. I know that’s not what it feels like for residents of northern Israel, but Hezbollah and Iran’s responses have been fairly pragmatic and restrained and very often choreographed and telegraphed in advance.

But what’s happening here is what I call a game of Middle East roulette. You keep trying and pushing and pushing, and at one point you push too far and you do ignite a regional conflagration, which the Biden administration has warned Israel repeatedly not to do. What Hezbollah does now and what Israel’s intentions were, we’ll find out over the next 48 hours. Did Israel think that it could do a final sort of devastating blow against Hezbollah, or is this a prelude to a large-scale military operation against Lebanon, while Hezbollah is dealing with the aftermath of this chaos?