We spoke to Ian Lawrence, General Secretary of NAPO, the union representing probation staff, and began by asking for his reaction to the report that some sex offenders will get early release from prison under government plans, as warned by whistleblowers.

Ian Lawrence: I’m not surprised by the whistleblower statements. It’s the sort of thing we’ve been saying for many, many years now. The plain fact is, there are too many people in the UK prison system. And until we get a holistic look at the sentencing regime that previous governments and this government are going to operate, you’re always going to have an overcrowding crisis, and this is a desperate measure to meet desperate times. But we have severe reservations about it.

Cathy Newman: Let’s just delve into some of those severe reservations, because how can and should the government respond? For example, the man that we reported on is due to be released four months early. He served the standard prison term for the sex offence bit of his sentence. He’s got a legal right to be released, hasn’t he?

Ian Lawrence: That’s now enshrined in statute, yes. And as you said, it’s not an ideal situation. Not a good look, particularly for the victims’ families, but it is a desperate measure to meet what is an intolerable crisis. And one can understand why the government has moved this way, but it’s going to heap pressure on probation. We still are struggling, even under this new scheme, to have the necessary time to prepare for early release, whatever the circumstances are. Then there’s the issue of what support services are out there when people are released. So it’s not great, it’s not great. But the alternative is that some people would never have been arrested, and this is an even more worrying issue.

Cathy Newman: The government says that it has given you weeks to prepare. But now, just days away from what we now know, some sex offenders are going to be released. Are you ready for that? Are you prepared?

Ian Lawrence: Let me tell you, our members will do their utmost to make sure that they take all the steps in terms of public safety. If there are license conditions ascribed to the release plan, then we will obviously be involved in that. But we have been saying that we needed to be consulted on this scheme far more widely than we were. Much of this has come to light quite recently. And that’s my big disappointment, because I expected the new Lord Chancellor to really take account of what expert practitioners have been saying. That needs to improve and the government needs to improve the reward package and the motivation package for probation staff, because we’re understaffed but overworked and people are crashing out with illness. It’s not good.

Cathy Newman: The government says that the crisis that the previous government bequeathed them meant that they had no choice but to introduce this early release programme to stop a crisis that would have overwhelmed the justice system. But if the public is potentially at risk, does the buck stop with this government or the last government?

Ian Lawrence: I think it stops with politicians who have to make these decisions. And the last government is not here, so it will fall on the shoulders of the new Lord Chancellor. We are told by senior management and probation that everything is being done, factored in, to reduce the risk of further serious harm cases. We know from our own experience that whatever government is in power, if you don’t have the necessary checks and balances in place, then these further offences can happen. Our members will be doing their best. They don’t go to work to see people hurt. They’re trying their best, but they’re under massive pressure right now.