India’s GDP is likely to grow in the range of 7% to 7.5%, the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said on Monday, citing a normal monsoon and the momentum in high-frequency indicators like bank credit growth as key factors amid signs of receding global shocks.

The NCAER’s growth projection is higher than the 6.5% to 7% growth estimated for this fiscal in the Economic Survey for 2023-24 released last week, prior to the Union Budget.

The Budget’s guidance on fiscal restraint, with the fiscal deficit target set at 4.9% of GDP compared with 5.1% of GDP in the interim Budget for this year, will keep the economy in good stead, NCAER director general Poonam Gupta said.

“Based on the momentum in the high frequency indicators; normalized monsoon; a relatively benign global outlook; and receded electoral uncertainty, both in India and in the rest of the world, growth will likely turn out to be higher than 7%, and possibly closer to 7.5%,” she concluded.